If the year-end adjusted average comes out to $200.00 or more per barrel, Mr. Simmons wins. If it averages out to less than $200.00, Mr. Tierney wins. The winner takes the entire pot of US$10,000.00, plus interest--$5,000.00 from both parties, currently sitting in escrow. The Oil Drum had some coverage on the bet in 2008.
Obviously with the current state of the world economy oil prices will not even rise above $100 for even one day in 2010. Simmons will lose big and Tierney will win.
If China sees a large rise in oil demand over the next few years, then eventually a significant rise in oil prices is likely from demand increase and inability of supply to increase to match. - NextBigFuture