Fueling the Future Force: Preparing the Department of Defense for a Post-Petroleum Environment, published September 27, is the third military consideration of a future of scarce oil published so far this year. It states that 77 per cent of the US Department of Defense's "massive energy needs" are met by petroleum – but "given projected supply and demand, we cannot assume that oil will remain affordable or that supplies will be available to the United States reliably three decades hence." To remain as an effective fighting force, the entire US military must transition from oil over the coming 30 years.
It's a notable publication for a couple of reasons – being co-authored by lieutenant colonel (Ret.) John Nagl (left), who literally wrote the book on US counterinsurgency operations, and for being the second report produced for the American military this year to consider the strategic importance of oil. It also follows on neatly from a German military report that squarely addresses the issue of peak oil.
As such, it's hard not to compare all three military documents.
Back in February, the United States Joint Forces Command published The Joint Operating Environment 2010. Written by the military for the military, this was seemingly intended as a discussion document to guide "future force development." As such, it was concerned with probable "future trends and disruptions" – a variety of geopolitical issues: demographics, globalization, US debt, the global recession, water shortages, food supply, climate change and dwindling oil supply.
It projects an image of a chronically unstable world, with the high probability of "revolution or war, including civil war" ripping through the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa over access to food and water. While it puts oil on the list of dwindling resources, it cannot be called a peak oil report, stating: "The central problem for the coming decade will not be a lack of petroleum reserves, but rather a shortage of drilling platforms, engineers and refining capacity."
But then it continues that despite technological innovations and non-conventional oils, "by 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD."
But The Joint Operating Environment's main concern is not fueling the US military machine so much as funding it:
Another potential effect of an energy crunch could be a prolonged U.S. recession which could lead to deep cuts in defense spending (as happened during the Great Depression). Joint Force commanders could then find their capabilities diminished at the moment they may have to undertake increasingly dangerous missions.
(More about this report here.)
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