...specifically, the impacts estimated in this report are based upon windfall profits legislation S.2971 proposed in the 110th Congress. Such a tax would also indirectly impact natural gas producers to the extent that crude oil producers also produce natural gas. The analysis assesses how the tax would affect production and imports of petroleum and natural gas as well as key performance metrics of the United States' economy.
The report finds that the proposed increases in the tax burden on the U.S. oil and gas industry would likely result in a significant shift in investment away from the U.S. in oil and gas exploration and production activities and in oil refining. This shift could impact expected patterns of global oil and gas supply; would likely result in long-term job losses for the domestic oil and gas industry; and would likely adversely impact the broader economy.
The distortional impacts on investment and trade would be clearly seen through increases in U.S. imports of crude oil, refined products and natural gas, coupled with declines in U.S. domestic production of these energy sources.
The U.S. energy deficit could be magnified over the next 20 years as a result of the diversion of investment caused by increased taxes on the domestic oil and gas sector. Although this study has specifically assessed the impact of a proposed Windfall Profits Tax, similar forms of increased taxation on the industry would be expected to have directionally similar negative consequences.
Report Linked here