Specific impacts of the legislation on domestic energy markets include the following:
• A windfall profits tax on the oil and natural gas industry could result in an estimated average decline in domestic crude oil production of approximately 21-26% from baseline levels or between 1.5 to 1.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOE/day)1 over the 2010–2030 period. The loss in domestic crude oil production would result in imports of crude oil increasing by 13-18% over baseline levels or approximately by 1.2 to 1.5 MMBOE/day.
• Because many domestic crude oil producers also produce natural gas, a windfall profits tax could also result in a decline in domestic natural gas production of between 1.6-2.4 Tcf (9-13% from baseline levels) by the period 2020-2030. This loss in domestic production would in part be offset by greater reliance on foreign imports with imports increasing between 0.5-1.2 Tcf (14-55% over baseline levels) during the period 2020-2030.
• A windfall profits tax could reduce investment in domestic refineries and is estimated to result in a reduction in production of petroleum products of 410-660 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOE/day), or 2-4% below baseline levels, during the 2010-2030 period. The loss in domestic refinery production could in part be offset by increasing foreign imports of petroleum products by 230-430 MBOE/day (15-21% over baseline levels) during the 2010-2030 period.
Link via from theoildrum
