While makers of grid-connected electric vehicles would be happy with annual sales of tens of thousands of units, micro-hybrid vehicle sales will top three million units this year and rise to 34 million units by mid-decade. This growth spells enormous opportunity for the energy storage technologies that support micro-hybrids. According to the latest report from Lux Research, the energy storage market for micro-hybrids will expand at a CAGR of 57.5% over the next five years, reaching over $2.7 billion in 2015.
The report, titled "Micro-hybrids: On the Road to Hybrid Vehicle Dominance," examines the overall market for micro-hybrids – a term that refers to how extensively the vehicle uses electricity, rather than its size. Unlike conventional hybrid vehicles or plug-in hybrids, which apply energy storage toward propulsion, micro-hybrids apply it more modestly for start-stop and/or regenerative braking applications. Thus, rather than using high-end nickel-metal hydride or lithium-on batteries, they rely instead on more cost-effective energy storage, such as flooded lead-acid (FLA) batteries, enhanced flooded batteries (EFBs), adsorbed glass mat batteries (AGM), and advanced lead-acid systems that often include ultracapacitors.
"We expect that, by the middle of this decade, 37% of the new passenger vehicles sold throughout the world will be micro-hybrids."
In preparing its analysis, Lux Research developed a model to forecast regional markets for three categories of micro-hybrid vehicles and several energy storage technologies through 2015. Among its key observations:
- Europe's aggressive regulatory environment drives adoption. With the most stringent environmental regulations, Europe will remain at the forefront of micro-hybrid adoption. Sales of 2.8 million units projected for 2010 are on track to grow to 10.5 million by 2015 – representing a CAGR of 30%, by which time micro-hybrids will comprise 64% of European auto sales.
- Milder fuel efficiency targets in the U.S. cause slower adoption. In the U.S., micro-hybrid sales will grow from virtually zero in 2010 to a respectable 4.6 million units by 2015 – roughly half the penetration that micro-hybrids will see in Europe as a percentage of total vehicles sold.
- China approaches fuel economy differently. The forecast for China is that its micro-hybrid market will skyrocket from roughly 300,000 units in 2010 to 9.5 million units in 2015. That's a staggering CAGR of 99.8% – representing 48% of the country's passenger vehicle sales in that year.
- Japan takes the middle road. Micro-hybrid sales in Japan will grow from 300,000 units in 2010 to 3.8 million by 2015, a CAGR of 66.3%. That means that almost two-thirds of Japan's passenger vehicle sales will come from micro-hybrids by mid-decade.
Join Lux Research for a complimentary Power State of the Market webinar, "Micro-hybrids: On the Road to Hybrid Vehicle Dominance," on Tuesday, November 16th at 11:00 am EST. Register now.
Read more on Fast Track for Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) from image cred. Seeking Alpha
