Brad Plumer, Washington Post - "I find it extraordinary that the massive global drop in human fertility has been so little noticed by the media," writes Stanford geographer Martin Lewis, "escaping the attention of even highly educated Americans."
Lewis has a fascinating, chart-heavy essay over at the Breakthrough Institute pointing out that birthrates are dropping rapidly almost everywhere around the world — with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa, mostly. Here's a map of the current state of affairs:
One notable bit here is how many developing countries now have lower birthrates than even some European nations. "Chile (1.85 children per woman), Brazil (1.81), and Thailand (1.56) have lower birthrates than France (2.0), Norway (1.95), and Sweden (1.98)," Lewis writes.
The same goes for India. Back in 1968, biologist Paul Ehrlich famously warned about a coming population explosion in India that would lead to mass famine and catastrophe. Yet today, India's fertility rate (2.5) is only slightly higher than the United States' (2.1). In India's southern states, the birthrate is actually below replacement level, meaning that the next generation will be smaller than the current one.
.... this is a story with big implications. Environmentalists have long warned that if the global population keeps soaring — we're at about 7 billion right now — that'll put a huge strain on the Earth's natural resources. But in much of the world, the population is no longer soaring. And, if the soap-opera hypothesis is correct, birthrates in places like Africa might end up dropping far more rapidly and easily than anyone expects.
Lewis has a fascinating, chart-heavy essay over at the Breakthrough Institute pointing out that birthrates are dropping rapidly almost everywhere around the world — with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa, mostly. Here's a map of the current state of affairs:
One notable bit here is how many developing countries now have lower birthrates than even some European nations. "Chile (1.85 children per woman), Brazil (1.81), and Thailand (1.56) have lower birthrates than France (2.0), Norway (1.95), and Sweden (1.98)," Lewis writes.
The same goes for India. Back in 1968, biologist Paul Ehrlich famously warned about a coming population explosion in India that would lead to mass famine and catastrophe. Yet today, India's fertility rate (2.5) is only slightly higher than the United States' (2.1). In India's southern states, the birthrate is actually below replacement level, meaning that the next generation will be smaller than the current one.
.... this is a story with big implications. Environmentalists have long warned that if the global population keeps soaring — we're at about 7 billion right now — that'll put a huge strain on the Earth's natural resources. But in much of the world, the population is no longer soaring. And, if the soap-opera hypothesis is correct, birthrates in places like Africa might end up dropping far more rapidly and easily than anyone expects.
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