In 2003 we co-chaired a major Massachusetts Institute of Technology study, The Future of Nuclear Power, that analyzed what would be required to retain the nuclear option.
That study described a scenario whereby worldwide nuclear power generation could triple to one million megawatts by the year 2050, saving the globe from emissions of between 0.8 billion and 1.8 billion tons of carbon a year, depending on whether gas- or coal-powered plants were displaced. At this scale, nuclear power would significantly contribute to the stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions, which requires about seven billion tons of carbon to be averted annually by 2050 [see "A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check," by Robert H. Socolow and Stephen W. Pacala].
The Fuel Cycle
If nuclear power is to expand by such an extent, what kind of nuclear plants should be built?
France, currently use a closed fuel cycle in which plutonium is separated from the spent fuel and a mixture of plutonium and uranium oxides is subsequently burned again. A longer-term option could involve recycling all the transuranics (plutonium is one example of a transuranic element), perhaps in a so-called fast reactor. In this approach, nearly all the very long lived components of the waste are eliminated, thereby transforming the nuclear waste debate. Substantial research and development is needed, however, to work through daunting technical and economic challenges to making this scheme work.
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