Everyone must read this AutoblogGreen Exclusive on hydrogen economy's nitty-gritty details explained by the DOE..
The uncertainty and possibility of the hydrogen economy that exists. As Gronich said in closing this a first glimpse of what might be, of what's possible. "Who knows what you guys write on your blogs." Well, Siggy - can I call you Siggy? - what I wanted to share the information that you and your co-presenters gave with a wider audience. Would that be all right with you? I hope so, because here it is.
DOE's analyses of three scenarios of hydrogen acceptance in America...
This presentation was a snapshot of what the DOE understands right now about how the upcoming hydrogen economy might be installed. The scenarios (described below) the teams are looking at are at the recommendation of the National Research Council, and Gronich's team will present their final report to the NRC in March 2007. As if this needs to be said considering the topic, but the hydrogen economy is a work in progress.
The DOE's analyses used three different scenarios of hydrogen acceptance in America suggested by the NRC to try and understand how best to implement the hydrogen economy.
The DOE's analyses used three different scenarios of hydrogen acceptance in America suggested by the NRC to try and understand how best to implement the hydrogen economy.
As explained by Gronich, the three scenarios for America are:
- Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) are introduced widely in 2015, with government support for hundreds or thousands of vehicles a year by 2012 and tens of thousands by 2018. This will result in 2 million HFCVs by 2025.
- The government supports thousands of HFCVs by 2012, tens of thousands by 2015 and hundreds of thousands by 2018. This gives 5 million HFCVs by 2025.
- Lastly, the government supports thousands a year by 2012 and millions a year by 2021, giving 10 million by 2025. The HFCVs come from multiple companies and in lots of model choices.
A kilogram of hydrogen will range from a low of $2.50 to a high of $6, with the cost of most methods averaging between $3 and $4 starting in 2020 in Los Angeles.
Two factors will influence fuel cell success by 2050: first, meeting the DOE's 2010 goals for HFCVs, with "average progress for other technologies" also occurring. Second, a price of oil that sits at about $90 a barrel in 2030. If these two things happen, Leiby said, there may not be any need for government policies (like a motor fuel tax exemptions or $1,000 per vehicle subsidy for hydrogen vehicles) much after 2025.
You can read more about that meeting and download some of the presentation PDFs here. There was also an earlier meeting, back in January.
You can read more about that meeting and download some of the presentation PDFs here. There was also an earlier meeting, back in January.
