Mar 15, 2009

The U.S. has it easy, other will just starve

"Farmers can't afford a thousand dollars a ton, so they've cut back on ammonia. Wheat protein percentages will drop from 14% to 8%. People are going to starve."
 
Let's take a look at what this means to the global food supply. Here are the 2005 production numbers in millions of tons. There are six and a half billion of us and 626 million tons produced; this staple crop provides a little less than two hundred pounds of grain per capita.
 
From the dailykos

Global Human Protein Deficit

There were already significant concerns regarding wheat supplies and a dangerous pathogen called Ug99 wheat rust is spreading.

Assuming we dodge the wheat rust and climate issues the 43% reduction in protein content we won't have much trouble here in North America but it is going to be awful for places like Haiti.

 Haiti already had troubles related to food .. and the things people do when there isn't enough to go around. If the wheat they buy suddenly has dramatically less protein the effects will be awful.

Haiti is the obvious problem in this hemisphere and I'm going to pick Pakistan as the trouble spot in the east. They're already under the gun financially and if they escape an outright default they're still going to have reduction in imports ... and again we come back to the 43% decrease in protein.

There are some things we can technically do to avoid outcomes ..., but I don't think we have the political will to do them.