"The US has experienced six recessions since 1972. At least five of these were associated with oil prices. 
In every case, when oil consumption in the US reached 4% percent of GDP, the U.S. went into recession. Right now, 4% of GDP is US$80 a barrel oil. So my current view is that if the oil price exceeds US$80, then expect the U.S. to fall back into recession,"
Kopits is a poster boy on all the "peak oil" websites and doomsayer blogs, and his metric on the link between recessions and oil price is interesting. If Kopits is correct, so much for "green shoots". They will be trampled under foot over and over again unless there is a sudden spike upwards in GDP growth disproportionally more so than oil price increases.Here is the roller-coaster cycle he points out: Higher oil prices mean recessions, recessions mean less consumption then lower oil prices which leads to less exploration and supply which leads to higher oil prices and recession again.
Kopits - "If I dispassionately just look at the numbers, the oil supply has not improved that much since the 4th quarter of 2004. And I don't see anything on the horizon that makes it appear that we're going to break out into a really new level of production that's far different than what we have today."
Kopits - "Consumption will tend to grow faster in developing economies for two reasons. First, by their nature, developing economies should grow faster than mature ones, and this has been generally true of east Asia and strikingly so in the case of China. So faster economic growth means faster growth in demand for oil. ...we would expect Chinese oil demand to stabilize at around 50 mbpd around 2032-2035." (China currently 8 million per day, US 20 million, Japan 5 million).
Kopits - "If you have a flat—or heaven help us, declining—supply of oil, then the emerging and fast-growing economies will have no choice but to start bidding away the oil from the advanced or slow-growing economies. That is consistent with what we've seen in the data starting in about 2006. For China to grow, it will have to take away the oil of Japan, the US and Europe, just as it has in the last three years."
In related GPD news update... after Geithner asked senate to pass a debt-limit increase to $13.029 trillion earlier this year (as concerns mount over the nation's record debt, ballooning budget deficit and reliance on foreign investors ;-( in historical perspective, the long-term average of debt to GDP ratio has been around 40%.) The only time in U.S. history the ratio was higher than it is currently was during World War II, and it quickly fell after the war ended.
"It's always difficult for anyone to vote for an increase in the debt limit," said Jim Horney, director of federal fiscal policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. "But by the time you get to the point of needing to raise the debt limit, you've already spent the money."... the White House Budget Office forecasts the debt to increase to 77% of GDP by fiscal 2019.
Haase - To fix the budget, my suggestion would be to provide ALL energy from U.S. sources to save 2 trillion a month and sell NAFTA countries excess energy reserve we produce to make another 2 trillion a month... Budget fixed ;-)
