May 6, 2010

Cap N Tax - "Job death blow" report from CBO

Policies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Could Affect Employment, Economic Brief
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has analyzed the research on the effects that policies to reduce green house gases would have on employment and concluded that total employment during the next few decades would decline with such policies.


Effects on Total Employment
By raising the prices of goods and services in proportion to the greenhouse gas emissions associated with their production and consumption, most policies to reduce emissions would affect total employment as well as the number of jobs available in various industries.

The increases in prices caused by a tax or a cap-and-trade program would cause workers' real (inflation-adjusted) wages to be lower than they would otherwise be. Nearly all workers would choose to remain in the workforce and accept those wages.


U.S. program would put domestic firms in emission intensive industries at a disadvantage relative to their foreign competitors. The result would be reduced exports, increased imports, and, consequently, a greater decline in employment in those industries.
 
  • Coal mining would probably see the largest percentage decline in employment
  • Employment in oil and gas extraction and natural gas utilities would also be expected to decline as those fuels became more expensive and the demand for them declined.
  • Mining (for materials other than coal), construction, and the industries that produce metals, nonmetallic mineral products (such as glass), chemicals, and transportation services all of which use relatively large amounts of energy directly or indirectly would probably also experience reductions in employment,
     
Please read full from CBO - this is only a paraphrased summary