The Economist predicts that China will pass the USA in US dollar GDP at market conversion rates in 2019
The Economist provides an online calculator for people to calculate their own date when China will pass the USA
The maximum values are plus or minus 10% for GDP growth, inflation and currency appreciation.
Over the past decade annual inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) has averaged 3.8% in China against 2.2% in America. And since China ditched its strict dollar peg in 2005 the yuan has risen by an annual average of 4.2%.
I have predicted that China will pass in 2016-2018.
My most likely date is 2017.
China GDP growth averaging 8.5, combined inflation and yuan appreciation of 10%.
US with growth of about 2-3%.
Inflation and yuan appreciation could be 8.5% and the date would still be 2017.
China GDP growth could slow to 6.5% per day witha combined inflation and yuan appreciation of 8.5% and the date would be 2018 (with moderately slow US growth).
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