Jan 2, 2011

OPEC is cheating... $200 Oil is Imminent

Now that the Peak has passed, all sorts of interesting tidbits are emerging.HTML clipboard

Apparently, the oil cartel pumped 26.78 million barrels per day (mmbd) this year. Yet they have a production limit of only 24.845 mmbd, set at the end of 2008 in response to the recession.

So your friendly neighborhood fuel gang has been breaking its output limit by 1.934 million barrels — everyday, all year long.https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcYql0W1NjvVUW3tBSc9ssuZE90UmpbUuOGPPQp4tQDvYyv7hAYj9YgcI4AW9VKV2c5rVIYkv1aexUFT4YGKmEsIvNH94zA8x7gezV3Uc5vcLXCN1re827m9PYtgV2qSgBbKef/s400/Little+Rascals+From+Our+Gang+Comedies.JPG

With crude at its highest price in two years, overproduction allows OPEC members to boost profits without formally changing output targets.

An extra 1.934 mmbd at $80 works out to a nice "informal" $56.47 billion boost.


Analysts, start your engines

If the price of oil creeps high enough, OPEC will officially raise its target to cash in.

$100 seems to be the obvious trigger to make that happen, and the consensus is that it will happen this year.

Oil's at $91.43 as I write this — up 30% from the year's low.

Goldman says it'll "average $100 in 2010 and $110 in 2012." JPMorgan says we'll see $120 by the end of 2012.

Adding to the pricing fire, U.S. stockpiles declined by 19 million barrels this month thanks to intense cold and holiday travel. That's the biggest monthly decrease since December 2006.

I'm sure you've noticed gas station marquee numbers are back on the march.

Read full at energyandcapital