NGFast: rapid assessment of impacts of natural gas pipeline breaks at U.S. borders and import points
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New Madrid seismic zone |
Challenge
Our nation relies on natural gas to meet about 22% of its energy needs. Within the next 10 years, the use of natural gas is projected to grow by 50% — making security of this resource increasingly important.
Natural gas is transported from production fields and import points to consumers nationwide via high-pressure interstate pipelines. In an emergency involving a pipeline disruption, whether it be natural or man-made, quick response is necessary to limit the impact of the event. Existing modeling systems take days to provide essential assessment data following an event like a pipeline break or a reduction in pipeline flow (resulting from either compressor damage or a low-output condition in production fields brought about by hurricanes or freezing rain).
Solution
NGFast is a new simulation and impact-analysis tool developed by Argonne National Laboratory. This powerful tool allows for rapid, first-stage assessment of the impacts of major pipeline breaks and reductions in flow from import points and production fields. Within minutes of a break, NGFast can generate HTML-formatted graphics and tabular reports to supplement briefing materials for state and federal emergency responders. The model provides summaries, as well as detailed reports (pre-and post-disruption conditions).
Scientific Basis for New Madrid Seismic Hazard is Sound
GardenNews.biz -USGS Director Welcomes Independent Panel Report Confirming that Scientific Basis for New Madrid Seismic Hazard is Sound The National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council has issued a new report in which independent experts conclude that current USGS estimates for significant earthquake hazards in the New Madrid Seismic Zone—affecting eight central and eastern U.S states—are based on sound science.
The Council, a federal advisory committee, recently presented the report to USGS Director Marcia McNutt. Prepared by a panel of scientists from many disciplines and organizations, the report comes during the Bicentennial commemoration of the three violent “New Madrid” earthquakes and hundreds of aftershocks that struck the Mississippi River Valley in 1811-1812. “I commend NEPEC for assembling an independent expert panel to weigh scientific evidence regarding the threat posed by large earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone,” said Director McNutt. “This is an important issue that has spurred decades of excellent research on the large earthquakes of 1811 and 1812; the geologic evidence of similar earthquakes in previous centuries; and how our modern cities and towns would be shaken if similar earthquakes were to occur today.” Professor John Vidale of the University of Washington chaired the independent panel of experts, who concluded in the report that: The New Madrid Seismic Zone represents a significant hazard for large earthquakes that would cause widespread damage. This hazard must be accounted for in urban planning and development. The panel does not support the view of some individuals that the region has “shut down” in its production of large earthquakes. The current version of the USGS national seismic hazard maps are a good estimate of the overall hazard posed by the New Madrid Seismic Zone and should continue to be used until the next revision of the maps replace them in 2013. Additional research could lower remaining uncertainties and thus potentially lower the potential hazard in future maps. During the bicentennial anniversary of the earthquakes, scientists and emergency managers are raising awareness of earthquake hazards and providing information to help communities take steps to lessen the impacts of future earthquakes.
NEPEC was congressionally established in legislation authorizing the four-agency National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program. The Council provides advice and recommendations to the USGS Director on earthquake predictions and related scientific research. The report and an accompanying letter from NEPEC Chairman Terry Tullis are posted on the Council’s website.
More information on earthquake hazards can be found on the USGS website.
www.earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/catalogs/
Facts about the New Madrid Seismic Zone
The New Madrid Seismic Zone overlaps eight states: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, Illinois, Indiana, Arkansas and Missouri. It is the most seismically active area of the United States east of the Rockies. Scientists are pursuing research on numerous aspects of the hazard; this work has shown that there have been several sequences of big earthquakes during at least the past several thousand years. Because earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S. are more infrequent than in the western U.S., there are fewer observations and therefore greater uncertainties about future hazards.- Central & Eastern US Fact Sheets, See also
2-page information sheets for a general audience - New Madrid Earthquakes 1811 - 1812
Accounts of the large earthquakes that occurred in the New Madrid area in 1811 - 1812. - Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country - Central US edition
Earthquakes and preparedeness in the Central
www.dis.anl.gov/projects/ngfast.html
