Oct 25, 2011

It will not be a problem to feed 15 billion people

The UN has a new world population forecast out to 2100 The current world population of close to 7 billion is projected to reach 10.1 billion in the next ninety years, reaching 9.3 billion by the middle of this century, according to the medium variant of the 2010 Revision of World Population Prospects. The high projection variant, whose fertility is just half a child above that in the medium variant, produces a world population of 10.6 billion in 2050 and 15.8 billion in 2100. The low variant, whose fertility remains half a child below that of the medium, produces a population that reaches 8.1 billion in 2050 and declines towards the second half of this century to reach 6.2 billion in 2100.


The range of projections is relatively unchanged from last year, but reissued press releases and the statistical analysis that we are passing the milestone level of 7 billion people has caused fearful articles about inability to support that level of population.

Guardian UK - Why current population growth is costing us the earth

Guardian UK - Paul Ehrlich, a prophet of global population doom who is gloomier than ever. Population surge means there is only a 10% chance of avoiding a collapse of world civilisation, says professor.

Paul Ehrlich has been wrong predicting doom since his 1968 book The Population Bomb.

John McCarthy at Stanford has some information about how food, water and other human resources will be sustainable using current technology to sustain population levels of 15 billion people.


He looks at increasing agriculture and aquaculture yields.

Nextbigfuture has also looked at sustaining agriculture using current technology.