There are clear signs of a liquidity crunch in the asset markets right now, and the question I keep hearing is, Is this 2008 all over again?
No, it’s worse. Much worse.
In 2008 there was a lot more faith and optimism upon which to draw. But both have been squandered to significant degrees by feckless regulators and authorities who failed to properly address any of the root causes of the first crisis even as they slathered layer after layer of thin-air money over many of the symptoms.
Anyone who has paid attention knows that those "magic potions" proved to be anything but. Not only are the root causes still with us (too much debt, vast regional financial imbalances, and high energy prices), but they have actually grown worse the entire time.
As always, we have no idea exactly what is going to happen and when, but we can track the various stresses and strains, noting that more and wider fingers of instability increase the risk of a major event. Heading into 2012, there's enough data to warrant maintaining an extremely cautious stance regarding holding onto one's wealth and increasing one's preparations towards resilience.
Here’s the evidence:
- Oil prices higher now than in 2009
- Derivatives up more than $100 trillion since 2009
- Government debts exploding
- Weak GDP growth
- Europe in trouble
- Small investors leaving the market
- China hitting a wall
One of the most important things we need to track is simply untrackable, and that is market perception. When faith in a faith-based money system vanishes, the game is pretty much over.
Oil Prices
As oil prices go up, the economy slows down, and vice versa.
Debt & GDP
...we have about the same-sized economy to support an additional $5 trillion in federal debt, or roughly a third more than when the crisis started.
It is also true that GDP growth in the US is weaker this year than last year, a trend that does not bode well for the US deficit situation:
The Investment Collapse
