In the study, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Shaman and his colleague, Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard School of Public Health, found that the last four major flu pandemics -- in 1918, 1957, 1968 and 2009 -- all followed a climate pattern called La Nina, which brings colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean and generally results in cooler global temperatures. One of these episodes, which occur every two to seven years, is currently underway.
If the theory holds, it could provide "a little lead time" to prepare for what have generally been unpredictable pandemics, said Shaman. "It could allow us to intensify our vigilance and put more resources in place."
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