Your National Post Exxon story and related oil (& gas) industry analyses deserve further comment.
Our view is that the oil industry may be overreaching in estimating future energy resources.
Concentrating on the conventional statistics — all hard numbers:
- World oil consumption is now over 86M bopd — an aggregate of a billion bbls every 12 days! The obvious question is— how many billion bbl discoveries are reported every couple of weeks?
- That’s 8 billion bbls every 90 days — over 30 billion bbls every year — year in, year out. No reliance here on the “Peak Oil” story!
- Moving to shale gas (and oil?). Even ignoring the current horrendous lease acquisition, drilling, development, et al, costs — by definition, shale is tight rock — which means low porosity and low permeability — which result in limited reserves and early, precipitous decline curves!
- Shades of the fairly recent coalbed methane “excitement” — a widespread, highly touted, play which quickly disappeared without a trace!! Will shale gas (and/or oil) follow suit?! Stand by!
The foregoing deals with significant hard numbers — ignored at financial risk!
The highly publicized shale gas play counts on operators annually claiming major “proven & probable” reserves in place — even if only produceable over 40 to 50 years! It sure helps the debt financing of operators in regular need of new capital!
Mark these words! Shale “reserves” may soon be discounted — perhaps sooner than we think.
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