EDMONTON — Less than two weeks after Alberta enacted legally enforceable pollution limits for its oil sands region, industry figures already suggest they will soon be breached by emissions of two major gases causing acid rain.
Regulatory documents for Shell’s proposed Jackpine mine expansion say annual levels of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide are likely to push past limits contained in the province’s Lower Athabasca Regional Plan if all currently planned developments proceed.
The documents, filed late last week, also provide what may be the clearest picture yet of what impact two decades of development have had on northeastern Alberta.
“It validates the concern that many stakeholders have raised about the cumulative pace and scale of development,” said Simon Dyer of the Pembina Institute. “It’s the first real test of the (plan).”
Shell filed the papers after the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency asked the company to give a clearer account of how the environment of the oilsands region has changed since development began and what part the Jackpine expansion would play. Written by environmental consultants Golder and Associates, the document estimates how levels of the two gases have grown over the years.
Average annual levels of sulphur dioxide are estimated at about 20 times what they would naturally be over a large area from Fort MacMurray to about 100 kilometres north. Nitrogen dioxide is estimated to be at least 10 times pre-development levels — although the report acknowledges hard data from that time is spotty.
And if all the projects that have been announced publicly or are in the regulatory process go ahead, the pollutants are projected to exceed what are supposed to be absolute caps.
Sulphur dioxide will reach average annual concentrations of 21.1 micrograms per cubic metre of air, just over the plan’s limit of 20 micrograms. Nitrogen dioxide will reach 59.5 micrograms, well over the limit of 45.
