Jan 10, 2014

MIT study has serious concern over population growth

Population Media Center - The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has just released an important modeling study titled "The Future of Global Water Stress: An Integrated Assessment". What makes this study very interesting is that the researchers assessed both changing climate and socioeconomics - and isolated for these two influencers.

No educated person can be surprised that MIT found increased water stress to be the course de rigueur moving forward into the 21st century. But, that MIT clearly concluded that population and economic growth are responsible for most of the increased water stress -- leading to an additional 1.8 billion people globally living in water-stressed regions by 2050 -- is noteworthy. For example, in India, climate researchers expect to see significant increases in precipitation, contributing to improved water supplies. However, India's projected population growth and economic development will cause water demands to outstrip surface-water supply. Full stop.

Indeed, "for many developing nations water-demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change." Meanwhile, the strongest climate impacts on relative changes in water stress are seen over many areas in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia and North America.

Predicting the future of global water stress MIT researchers find that by 2050 more than half the world's population will live in water-stressed areas and about a billion or more will not have sufficient water resources.

... The researchers expect 5 billion (52 percent) of the world's projected 9.7 billion people to live in water-stressed areas by 2050. They also expect about 1 billion more people to be living in areas where water demand exceeds surface-water supply. A large portion of these regions already face water stress - most notably India, Northern Africa and the Middle East.
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