Apr 23, 2009

What killed the electric car... math

My 93' GEO prism uses about $600 in gas a year at $2.75 per gallon... EV conversions always interest me for the car. But for 20,000 I can buy a decade of gas or small army of used GEO's. Needless to say, I will not be using this conversion. However, I did love the math - Thanks!

This is from article about 'Gas-guzzler to Dual-mode EV Conversions'

Essential Conversion Components
Gas-guzzler to Dual-Mode EV 50

Lead-acid
System

Li-ion
System

15 kWh battery pack

$3,000

$15,000

LAB replacement after 40 months

$3,000


LAB replacement after 80 months

$3,000


Off-the-shelf electric drive conversion kit

4,500

4,500

Miscellaneous conversion materials

900

900

Conversion labor

3,000

3,000

Total up-front cost before subsidies

$11,400

$23,400

Total 10-year cost before subsidies

$17,400

$23,400

The following table drills down another level and calculates how the capital costs would likely work in the case of a typical pickup, SUV or van owner while depreciating the electric drive system over a 10-year period and depreciated the batteries over their respective useful lives... then added an imputed interest factor of 6% per year on the total up-front cost before subsidies. Finally,... factored in charging costs at an average price of $0.10 per kWh and calculated a fully loaded breakeven gas price before subsidies assuming a baseline fuel efficiency of 17.5 mpg for the unmodified vehicle.

Estimated Monthly
Cost of Ownership

Lead-acid
System

Li-ion System

Depreciation of electric drive costs

$70

$ 70

Depreciation of battery costs

75

125

Imputed interest on up-front cost (6% per annum)

57

117

Electricity for daily recharge (20 days @ 15 kWh @ $.10)

30

30

Total monthly cost

$232

$342

Monthly gas savings (20 days @ 50 miles @ 17.5 mpg)

52.7

52.7

Fully loaded breakeven gas price

$4.40

$6.50

While the fully loaded breakeven gas price numbers don't look all that good in comparison to current prices of $2.25 per gallon, I am convinced that current prices are not sustainable. The following graph from the Energy Information Administration tracks the spot price of West Texas Crude from January 1986 through April 2009.